MADRID – The information office of the President of the Economic Commission of the Iraqi Parliament announced that Atwan al-Atwani met with Daniel Rubinstein, the Chargé d'Affaires of the United States Embassy, and his delegation. 

During the meeting, marked by the growing economic pressure on Iraq, bilateral relations and the sanctions imposed by Washington on the Islamic Republic of Iran were discussed. These restrictions threaten to exacerbate the already precarious energy situation in Iraq, particularly at a critical moment for the country's electricity supply.

Al-Atwani emphasized the need to maintain a constant communication channel with the United States but also warned about the consequences of interrupting Iranian gas imports. Iraq heavily depends on this supply to sustain its electrical grid, and the expiration of the sanctions waiver granted by Washington could result in massive power outages during the summer, affecting millions of citizens amidst rising temperatures.

The U.S. sanctions policy has placed Baghdad in a difficult predicament. While Iraq struggles to rebuild its economy and stabilize its energy infrastructure, Washington’s restrictions complicate access to essential resources. Regional analysts point out that the U.S. stance of severing Iraq’s ties with Iran is not based on a pragmatic approach but rather on a geopolitical pressure strategy that ignores the realities of the Iraqi energy market.

In this context, al-Atwani made it clear to Rubinstein that there are no short-term viable alternatives to replacing Iranian gas. Estimates suggest that a full replacement would take between three to four years, and any attempt at a hasty disconnection would have catastrophic consequences. Iraq finds itself trapped between Washington's geopolitical interests and the urgent need to secure electricity supply for its population.

Despite Baghdad’s request, the United States has decided not to renew a sanctions waiver dating back to 2018, when Washington reimposed restrictions on Tehran after Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran. This waiver allowed Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran, in line with the former president’s "maximum pressure" policy on Tehran.

In a statement issued on Sunday, the U.S. State Department explained that the decision not to renew the waiver was made to "ensure we do not allow Iran any degree of economic or financial relief."

In the immediate term, the lack of Iranian gas imports could cause a severe energy deficit for Iraq. According to Ahmad Moussa, spokesperson for the Ministry of Electricity of Iraq, if gas imports are also prohibited, the country could lose more than 30% of its electricity supply. The government, he said, is seeking alternatives. Additionally, senior officials from the Ministry of Electricity stated that Iraq could lose about 8,000 megawatts of power from plants operating on Iranian gas and another 500 megawatts of electricity supplied directly by Iran.

Three Iraqi energy sector officials who spoke with Reuters agreed that the country has no immediate alternatives to replace the energy imported from Iran, which will create a significant problem in meeting domestic electricity demand. Meanwhile, many Iraqis rely on diesel generators or face temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius during the summer months, further exacerbating the country’s energy crisis.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi expressed his regret through the social media platform X after learning of the U.S. decision, stating: "It is very unfortunate that the U.S. government has decided to deprive the innocent people of Iraq of access to basic services like electricity, especially on the eve of the coming warm months of the year." Araghchi further emphasized: "We stand by the Iraqi people and reaffirm our commitment to the Iraqi government to act against the illegal measures of the United States."

Washington's refusal to renew sanctions exemptions for Iraq has sparked a consensus among several analysts about the consequences of this decision, which could trigger an unprecedented internal crisis in the country. With the hot season and summer fast approaching, the lack of access to energy could lead to widespread unrest in Iraq, a country already facing significant challenges in terms of energy infrastructure and basic services.

In response, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein acknowledged the growing pressure from the United States but emphasized that Baghdad will not fully align with Trump’s anti-Iran strategy. Hussein insisted that Iraq will continue to seek a balance in its relationships with both Washington and Tehran, despite the difficulties this may entail.

Iraqi authorities now find themselves at a crucial crossroads, facing difficult decisions that could mark a turning point for the country. Whatever decision they make, whether it is to defy U.S. sanctions and continue importing gas from Iran or to comply with them and cut imports, both paths carry significant risks and will present unprecedented challenges for the Iraqi government.